As financial institutions, corporations, and governments increasingly adopt Bitcoin, many in the crypto market question the relevance of the four-year cycle model typically associated with it. Let’s examine how this cycle is structured and why skepticism exists.
An account on X called Bitcoin Archive conducted a poll asking if Bitcoin’s four-year cycles are over. In just ten hours, over 10,000 users voted, with 52% affirming that the cycles may have ended. This doesn’t necessarily mean the cycles are no longer reliable; rather, it suggests a changing landscape.
Understanding the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycles
When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he programmed a mechanism that reduces the mining reward approximately every four years, known as “halving.” This event significantly decreases the influx of new bitcoins, raising the cost of mining since miners receive only 50% of previous rewards. Consequently, they must sell mined coins at higher prices to maintain profitability.
As Bitcoin prices are largely driven by supply and demand, halving naturally establishes the four-year cycle for Bitcoin prices. With the number of new coins decreasing every four years, prices are expected to rise accordingly.
The Bitcoin four-year cycle consists of several stages. Typically, within 12 to 18 months following a halving, Bitcoin prices rise, often hitting a new all-time high. Traders sometimes anticipate a bull market starting weeks before halving. This bull market usually transitions into a bear market after the new peak, with prices declining in stages while generally remaining above pre-halving levels, indicating Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential.
Historically, even-numbered years marked halving and sharp price declines, while odd-numbered years experienced price growth. After previous halving years, Bitcoin often saw new records and growth rates exceeding 1000%. However, in 2021, the annual growth rate was only 57% due to a strong bear market at the year’s end.
Despite the four-year cycle’s historical reliability, recent trends suggest change. For example, in 2024, many miners chose to hold onto their mined bitcoins, anticipating a price increase rather than exchanging them for fiat during the bull run.
Can We Still Rely on the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle?
The most recent halving occurred in 2024. By January 20, 2025, Bitcoin reached a new record of $108,786, which could reaffirm the four-year cycle. However, if the cycle has ended, we might see either a strong bearish reversal or continued bullish momentum in future years.
Recently, Bitcoin’s price has shown volatility despite favorable regulations and higher adoption rates. This uncertainty raises questions among crypto investors about the sustainability of the bull market, potentially signaling the obsolescence of the four-year cycle.
Ryan Watkins, co-founder of Syncracy Capital, is a notable proponent of the idea that the four-year cycle may be dead. In January 2025, he suggested that it might be better to dismiss terms like “cycle” and “altcoin season.” He believes that the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will transform the market by inviting institutional investors to participate legally.
Watkins sees Bitcoin’s potential as evident but not yet fully reflected in adoption levels. He argues that Bitcoin is entering a new era characterized by greater adoption, maturity, and stability, promising less price volatility due to support from governments and institutional investors.
It’s important to note that the four-year cycle model was never a definitive rule. Market observers have always anticipated that evolving conditions could alter Bitcoin’s price behavior. Nonetheless, as survey results reveal, nearly half of respondents still believe in the four-year Bitcoin cycle.
While the current phase could be viewed as a bull market, global economic uncertainty hampers the confidence of crypto investors. Once the trade war’s effects settle, we’ll better understand whether the four-year cycle remains in play. If it persists, 2026 may be marked by a bear market, serving as a litmus test for the crypto market’s future.
