In a recent Medium article authored by Ming-Chi Kuo, a renowned Apple analyst, the Vision Pro, Apple’s newest product, experienced a remarkable debut, selling out during its initial pre-order weekend. Kuo projected sales ranging from 160,000 to 180,000 units, crediting this success to the unwavering support of the brand’s core enthusiasts and heavy users.
However, the report highlights a cause for concern as shipping times for all models extended to 5–7 weeks within hours of the pre-orders opening, and this duration remained unchanged 48 hours later. This departure from the typical pattern seen with iPhones, where shipping times progressively increase post-pre-order, raises questions about Vision Pro’s ability to sustain demand beyond the initial surge.
Kuo recognizes that attaining a shipment volume of 500,000 units for the Apple Vision Pro this year should pose no significant challenges. However, he underscores the importance of closely monitoring demand across diverse markets and staying attuned to changes in demand dynamics through application updates. Kuo also points out that, despite media reports indicating intensive efforts by supply chain partners like Luxshare to meet demand during the Lunar New Year, there is room for enhancement in the manufacturing efficiency of the Vision Pro.
Considering the extensive user base of over 1.2 billion active Apple users, Kuo highlights that if only around 0.007% of users express interest in purchasing after pre-ordering, the Vision Pro could quickly sell out upon its pre-order release. Nevertheless, Kuo characterizes the Vision Pro as a highly specialized product, despite the potential market size.
The resolution of how Apple manages the pre-order demand for the Vision Pro awaits the official product launch.
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