Bitcoin is close to completing a strong golden cross formation, potentially paving the way for a breakout surge toward $150,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) soared to a new all-time high of $111,544 on the afternoon of May 22 (Asian time), surpassing the previous record of $109,400 set just the day before. This latest peak represents a 48% increase from the April 7 low near $75,000, marking Bitcoin’s second all-time high in 2025.
Alongside this price surge, Bitcoin’s market capitalization climbed to $2.2 trillion, while its realized capitalization also reached a new record of $915 billion, underscoring the growing value entering the network.
The rally has been fueled by a significant rise in trading activity. According to CoinGecko, 24-hour trading volume jumped to $73.7 billion, up from $50 billion on Wednesday and $40 billion on Tuesday. This is especially notable given that earlier in May, daily volume had dipped below $30 billion its lowest level since February.
BTC futures open interest reached a new all-time high of $81.35 billion, a significant increase from approximately $46 billion in early March. This increase reflects growing confidence among institutional investors and leveraged traders.
Earlier this year, Bitcoin experienced significant headwinds, dropping more than 30% from its January peak of $109,588 to fall below $75,000 in early April.
This decline followed President Trump’s suggestion of imposing new tariffs on key U.S. trading partners. However, market sentiment improved by mid-April, particularly after the U.S. finalized new trade agreements with several countries.
A key driver behind Bitcoin’s recent rally has been strong demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have recorded net inflows exceeding $7.4 billion over the past five weeks, including $609 million on Thursday alone.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s increasing adoption as a treasury asset has spurred a wave of public companies to add the cryptocurrency to their balance sheets. Strategy, for example, has continued its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation and now holds more than 2.7% of the total Bitcoin supply.
BTC Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum
On the daily BTC/USDT chart, Bitcoin has successfully turned the 21-day EMA from resistance into support after several weeks of testing this level. More notably, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently crossed above the 200-day SMA, creating the widely followed golden cross pattern. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced gains of over 37% within three months following a similar formation, as seen in October 2024.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has broken out of a bull flag pattern a classic bullish continuation formation where the price temporarily consolidates downward following a strong upward trend.
This breakout also aligns with a falling wedge pattern on the weekly timeframe, pointing toward a measured target near $150,000. This target is derived by adding the height of the flagpole to the breakout point. Should the golden cross fully materialize, the next likely resistance zone could be around $153,600.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt acknowledged Bitcoin’s new highs but cautioned that reaching all-time highs is typical behavior during bull markets. In an X post from May 1, he projected that Bitcoin’s bull market cycle might peak between $125,000 and $150,000 by August or September 2025, though he also warned of a potential 50% correction afterward.
On a more optimistic note, analyst Gert van Lagen expects Bitcoin to reach between $300,000 and $320,000 by the end of the bull cycle. His bullish forecast is based on a breakout from a 4-year Megaphone Pattern, characterized by expanding price swings that often signal an impending sharp upward move.
Short-Term Risks Remain Despite Bullish Momentum
Even with strong upward momentum, a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out. Both Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator have entered overbought territory, suggesting the current rally might pause or experience a brief consolidation.
If this occurs, BTC could dip toward its support area near $93,500, which corresponds with key simple moving average levels.
Therefore, while a push toward $150,000 seems increasingly probable, it’s unlikely to be a straight climb. A short-term correction could actually set the stage for healthier, sustained gains over the longer term.
